# Over capacity of shipping



## borderreiver (Oct 11, 2008)

See the following from today daily telegrapth = http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...e-in-shipping-turns-ocean-into-scrapheap.html

This could cause further problems in employment. particular in view of high fuel costs .


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## callpor (Jan 31, 2007)

borderreiver said:


> See the following from today daily telegrapth = http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...e-in-shipping-turns-ocean-into-scrapheap.html
> 
> This could cause further problems in employment. particular in view of high fuel costs .


A well researched article. It’s a very similar situation to the mid 1980’s where VLCC’s ended up with 0, yes zero value. ‘course, many of the brokers, analysts, economists and journalists of today were still in nappies then and haven’t really experienced a shipping slump – many of them, including newer shipowners don’t know how to manage the problem. What she doesn’t mention is the very significant negative equity of many of the major operators, which the banks have yet to seriously challenge. Still many more bankruptcies to come me thinks, some of those will be big “names”. The smart guys who have seen it all before, have got substantial sheet anchor cash piles and have been waiting for this moment in the cycle – watch them replace their fleets with new ships for 30 cents on the $ from distress sales. Glad I'm out of it this time round. Going to be tough, not only for crewing but also training and maintenance.


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## McCloggie (Apr 19, 2008)

Discussing this today with relation to the FPSO market.

Could be bargains to be had for those operators who want a hull for conversion?

McC


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## Andrew Craig-Bennett (Mar 13, 2007)

Anyone want a 15yr old 1,700 TEU boxboat? Yours for US$500K over the demo value.

This isn't a recession.

When scrap prices hit US$ 86/Ldt (taiwan, 1986) THAT's a RECESSION!


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## Andrew Craig-Bennett (Mar 13, 2007)

Bought a VLCC for US$5M in 1983; by the time we reactivated her in 1987 she had cost us US$12.7M, including the purchase price and interest; ran her for ten years, during which she paid back the US$12.3M, and sold her for US$8.7M.


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## Varley (Oct 1, 2006)

Andrew, Between 1981 and 1991 house prices just about doubled. A measure not of house value but of currency value. Not that much less between 87 and 97. Sounds as if that wasn't ace business or was that the point?


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## What the Fug (Aug 22, 2007)

The Burrell were pretty good at managing the cycle


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## Andrew Craig-Bennett (Mar 13, 2007)

Varley said:


> Andrew, Between 1981 and 1991 house prices just about doubled. A measure not of house value but of currency value. Not that much less between 87 and 97. Sounds as if that wasn't ace business or was that the point?


It was; shipowning tends to be a great way to make a small fortune, provided you start with a big one!

A shipbroker, or analyst, unaware of the actual numbers, would have called that ship a "sucessful investment". She was not unsucessful, but as you say, compared to real estate she was a "Shanghai Loss"!


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## dave the wave (Apr 12, 2008)

*Ships Laid Up In River Fal 1950's*

Does anyone have any ideas as to where I can find a list of ships laid up in the Fal in the 1950's. The river was chock a block in those days, especially in Tolverne Reach.

I remember Clyde Ranger, San Antonio and I think San Ambosio being in a trot by the King Harry ferry.

Any help would be welcome.


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